NCAA Tournament forecast

By RANDY HOLTZ
Scripps Howard News Service

With NCAA Division I postseason conference tournaments scheduled to begin this week, here's the way the 65-team NCAA field shapes up as they regular season winds down.

NCAA locks refer to teams that will make the field regardless of how they perform down the stretch of the regular season and in conference tournaments. On the edge are teams that are borderline to be chosen for one of the 34 at-large berths.

Each of the 31 Division I conferences receives an automatic berth.

Because NCAA rules require the selection committee invite 34 at-large teams, there is one too many automatic berths. To make a 64-team field from 65 teams, there will be a play-in game March 16 between the teams the NCAA committee judges the weakest in the field. The winner of that game will be a No. 16 seed in the 64-team field and face a No. 1 seed in the first round.

Of the 31 conferences with automatic berths, 30 determine their automatic qualifiers with conference tournaments with the Ivy League being the lone exception as the regular-season champion receives the league's automatic berth.

The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) computer rankings referred to are published by CollegeRPI.com. They are a mathematical approximation of the RPI rankings used by the selection committee and largely are influenced by the quality of a team's schedule.

_ America East

Conference Tournament: Friday-March 13. First three rounds at Boston. Championship game at highest remaining seed.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: Vermont was tournament champ last season, and put up a good fight before losing to Arizona in the NCAA first round. This year, figure Boston University to grab the tournament title with Vermont, Maine and Northeastern challenging.

_ Atlantic Coast

Tournament: March 11- 14, Greensboro, N.C.

NCAA locks: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Wake Forest.

On the edge: Florida State, Maryland.

Outlook: The ACC has bounced back from a down season and could have as many as seven NCAA teams. Duke likely is headed for a No. 1 seed. The other locks are in good shape. Florida State and Maryland are squarely on the bubble and need to be strong down the stretch and in the ACC tournament. Virginia appears headed for the NIT.

_ Atlantic Sun

Tournament: Thursday-Saturday, Nashville, Tenn.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: Belmont opened some eyes with an upset win at Missouri in December. In retrospect, the Bruins' home win against Air Force in November also was impressive. Led by senior forward Adam Mark, look for the Nashville-based school to use the hometown advantage in the conference tournament to grab its first NCAA berth.

_ Atlantic 10

Tournament: March 10-13, Dayton, Ohio.

NCAA lock: Saint Joseph's.

On the edge: Dayton, George Washington, Richmond, Xavier.

Outlook: Saint Joe's is a probable No. 1 seed. Dayton looks good for an at-large berth. Of the other three, Xavier has the best shot. Possible conference tournament upset winners: the four bubble teams, plus Rhode Island.

_ Big East

Tournament: March 10-13, New York.

NCAA locks: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Providence.

On the edge: Boston College, Rutgers, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Villanova.

Outlook: The next couple of weeks should be interesting as the bubble teams scramble for wins. Seton Hall looks solid barring a collapse. Syracuse and Boston College should be OK if they keep winning. Rutgers and Villanova are squarely on the bubble.

_ Big Sky

Tournament: Saturday; March 9-10. First round at campus sites.

Semifinals and final at Eastern Washington.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: Eastern Washington has been the class of this one-berth league all season. The Cheney, Wash., team is led by senior guard Alvin Snow. The Eagles' top competition could come from Weber State, though the Wildcats aren't nearly as strong last season's 26-win NCAA team.

_ Big South

Tournament: Tuesday-Saturday. All games at sites of higher seeds.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The tournament champion in this conference, ranked No. 28 of 31 on the RPI conference computer, could be headed for the play-in game. Liberty has the best NCAA chance. The Flames played a tough non-conference schedule, losing at Duke and Arizona. The Jerry Falwell-run school last appeared in the NCAAs in 1994 and is led by forward Gabe Martin.

_ Big Ten

Tournament: March 11-14, Indianapolis.

NCAA locks: Illinois, Wisconsin.

On the edge: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue.

Outlook: What a mess. Michigan State is a near-lock but needs to avoid a collapse. The other four bubbles need to smell that NCAA berth and go for it the next two weeks. The Big Ten is down, as evidenced by the fact only two teams _ the two locks _ have an RPI ranking better than No. 40.

_ Big 12

Tournament: March 11-14, Dallas.

NCAA locks: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas.

On the edge: Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas Tech.

Outlook: Will Colorado get in? Possibly, unless it stumbles down the stretch. Bob Knight's Texas Tech club is a near-lock. Missouri's double-overtime win against Oklahoma State will boost the Tigers' cause. Oklahoma is on the bubble, while Iowa State and Nebraska probably need to win the conference tournament. The Big 12 tourney should be spirited with this many teams on the bubble.

_ Big West

Tournament: March 10-13, Anaheim, Calif.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Utah State.

Outlook: Former Colorado State coach Stew Morrill boosted Utah State's non-conference schedule, giving the Aggies a high enough RPI (No. 39) to warrant an at-large berth. The Aggies need that ranking. Pacific should win the conference tournament but has no at-large shot. Picked ninth in the preseason in a 10-team league, that would quite an achievement for the Tigers.

_ Colonial

Tournament: Friday- March 8, Richmond, Va.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: It should be a wide-open tournament in this one-berth league, with Va. Commonwealth, Drexel, George Mason and Old Dominion coming in with similar records. Any one of those four could grab the NCAA bid. VCU gets the nod, largely because the Rams are playing in their hometown. It would be VCU's first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996.

_ Conference USA

Tournament: March 10-13, Cincinnati.

NCAA locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis.

On the edge: Alabama-Birmingham, Charlotte, DePaul.

Outlook: Alabama-Birmingham and Charlotte have good RPI rankings and should be in good shape for at-large berths. DePaul is right on the bubble with a No. 49 RPI ranking. The tournament will determine the fate of the bubble teams.

_ Horizon

Tournament: Tuesday; Friday-Saturday; March 9. Opening round at campus sites. All other rounds at Butler if Bulldogs advance that far. Otherwise, Friday and Saturday games at campus of No. 1 seed, final at campus of highest remaining seed.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Outlook: Having lost to Notre Dame at the buzzer in the NCAA first round last year, Wisconsin-Milwaukee has an outside shot at an at-large berth but will make the point moot by winning the conference tournament. Butler, Illinois- Chicago or Wisconsin-Green Bay also can contend.

_ Ivy League

Tournament: None.

NCAA lock: Only regular-season champion.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: Princeton has the inside track for the title in the lone remaining Division I conference without a postseason tournament. The Tigers haven't missed a beat under new coach John Thompson, who replaced Bill Carmody when the latter left for Northwestern. Ranked second in the nation in team defense to Air Force, Princeton is led by junior center Judson Wallace.

_ Metro Atlantic

Tournament: Friday- March 8, Albany, N.Y.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Manhattan.

Outlook: Manhattan has an outside shot at an at-large berth, but look for the Jaspers to win the conference tournament. Coach Bobby Gonzalez has done a sensational job at the New York school and has a standout scorer in guard Luis Flores. Those who could challenge Manhattan in the include Niagara, Fairfield or St. Peter's.

_ Mid-American

Tournament: March 8, 11-13. First-round games at campus sites of higher seeds. Remainder at Cleveland.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Kent State, Western Michigan.

Outlook: The Golden Flashes and the Broncos have had nice seasons _ each hitting the 20-win mark _ but their at-large chances are iffy. Figure Kent State to win the conference tournament before many of its home fans in nearby Cleveland. Kent State was on the bubble last year, got upset in the MAC Tournament and wound up in the NIT. The Golden Flashes will use that as motivation here.

_ Mid-Continent

Tournament: Sunday, March 9 in Kansas City.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The Mid-Continent has risen from 27th in 2003 to No. 21 in the RPI conference computer but still has no chance at an at-large berth. Look for Indiana-Purdue-Indianapolis to win the tournament for the second consecutive season. IUPUI is led by perhaps the nation's oldest college point guard. Senior Matt Crenshaw, 28, averages 12 points and almost six assists. In their first NCAA trip last year, IUPUI lost to Kentucky in the first round.

_ Mid-Eastern Athletic

Tournament: March 8-13, Richmond, Va.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The MEAC is ranked No. 31 _ last in the RPI conference computer rankings. So the winner of this tournament _ likely Coppin State _ probably is headed for the play-in game. Ron "Fang" Mitchell has guided the Baltimore school to three NCAA appearances. The Eagles are led by senior guard Jimmy Boykin. South Carolina State, which won the MEAC tournament last year, also is a contender.

_ Missouri Valley

Tournament: Friday- March 8, St. Louis.

NCAA lock: Southern Illinois.

On the edge: Creighton, Wichita State.

Outlook: The conference with the coolest tournament nickname _ it's called Arch Madness because it's in St. Louis _ hopes to get two teams in the NCAA Tournament, but that's dicey. Southern Illinois has won 20-plus games and is ranked in the 20s in the RPI, so the Salukis are in. Creighton, which always seems to be on the NCAA bubble, is on it again. Look for Southern Illinois to win the conference tournament in coach Matt Painter's first year.

_ Mountain West

Tournament: March 11-13, Denver.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Air Force, Brigham Young, Utah.

Outlook: It has been a wacky year in the MWC, what with Air Force shockingly rising to the top. So the MWC Tournament should be interesting. The Falcons probably don't have a high enough RPI ranking to warrant at-large consideration but could get in anyway by winning the regular-season title. Rivals Utah and BYU are squarely on the bubble, and each would like to dispense with the suspense by cutting down the nets in Denver. UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State appear headed for the NIT.

_ Northeast

Tournament: Saturday- Sunday; March 10. First two rounds at Staten Island, N.Y. Championship at highest remaining seed.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: It's tight at the top, with Monmouth, Saint Francis (N.Y.) and Fairleigh Dickinson fashioning nice seasons. Monmouth is the best bet to win the conference tournament and the automatic NCAA Tournament berth.

_ Ohio Valley

Tournament: Tuesday; Friday-Saturday. First-round games at campus sites. Remainder at Nashville, Tenn.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The OVC has been top-heavy with Austin Peay and Murray State dominating league play. Murray State should prevail in the tournament. The Kentucky school is guided by first-year coach Mick Cronin, a former assistant under Bob Huggins at Cincinnati and Rick Pitino at Louisville.

_ Pacific-10

Tournament: March 11-13, Los Angeles.

NCAA locks: Arizona, Stanford.

On the edge: California, Oregon, Washington.

Outlook: It has been a rough season in the Pac-10, and it's possible the league will field only two NCAA teams _ the high seeds Wildcats and Cardinal. California has the highest RPI among the rest of the schools, but that ranking is only in the 70s. The Golden Bears, along with Washington and Oregon, probably need to win the conference tournament to make it.

_ Patriot

Tournament: Saturday- Sunday; March 14. First two rounds at Upper Marlboro, Md. Championship at campus of highest remaining seed.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The Patriot has produced the usual suspects for its NCAA berth. Lehigh, Lafayette, Bucknell and American have produced good regular seasons. Lafayette should pull through in the conference tournament. Led by guard Justin DeBerry, the Leopards, of Easton, Pa., last appeared in the NCAAs in 2000.

_ Southeastern

Tournament: March 11-14, Atlanta.

NCAA locks: Florida, Louisiana State, Kentucky, Mississippi State.

On the edge: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

Outlook: That bubble is huge, and the reason is the SEC upper-division teams have taken turns beating up on each other. After the four locks, it's a crapshoot to forecast. Six or seven teams likely will get in, helped by the league's No. 2 RPI ranking, behind only the Atlantic Coast. Alabama, Vanderbilt and South Carolina have the best computer rankings among the bubble teams.

Southern

Tournament: Wednesday-Saturday, Charleston, S.C.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: East Tennessee State.

Outlook: East Tennessee State has compiled 24 wins and has dominated the conference but probably needs to win the league tournament to get in. The Buccaneers should do it, earning their second consecutive NCAA berth, under new coach Murry Bartow.

_ Southland

Tournament: March 8-12. All games at campus sites of higher seeds.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The perennially low-ranked Southland is No. 30 among conferences on the RPI computer, so the winner could be headed for the play-in game. Look for Southeastern Louisiana to prevail and reach the NCAAs for the first time. The are led by guard Amir Abdur-Rahim, brother of NBA star Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

_ Southwestern Athletic

Tournament: March 11-13, Birmingham, Ala.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The winner of the SWAC tournament is another prime candidate for the play-in game. The SWAC again is ranked 31st among the leagues on the RPI computer. Figure Mississippi Valley State (20-6) to win the conference tournament. The Delta Devils, of Itta Bena, Miss., are coached by Lafayette Stribling, who has led them to three NCAA appearances.

_ Sun Belt

Tournament: Saturday-March 9, Bowling Green, Ky.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: Look for Western Kentucky to win the NCAA berth again. The Hilltoppers won 24 games and an NCAA berth in 2003, and first-year coach Darrin Horn has done a nice job after replacing Dennis Felton, who left for Georgia after guiding WKU to three consecutive NCAA trips.

_ West Coast

Tournament: Thursday-March 8, Santa Clara, Calif.

NCAA lock: Gonzaga.

On the edge: None.

Outlook: The Bulldogs no longer are NCAA Cinderellas. They're ranked No. 9 in the RPI ranking and will get in the NCAAs regardless, likely as a second or third seed. Look for Gonzaga to win the conference tournament, but the Bulldogs could be challenged by Saint Mary's, Pepperdine, San Francisco or host Santa Clara. Now, how long before Gonzaga coach Mark Few is snapped up by a more high-profile school?

_ Western Athletic

Tournament: March 9-13, Fresno, Calif.

NCAA lock: Only tournament winner.

On the edge: Hawaii, Nevada, Rice, Texas-El Paso.

Outlook: There is life at UTEP after Don Haskins. The Miners, now coached by Billy Gillispie, have won 22 games and played a tough enough non-conference schedule to have an RPI in the 40s, this after being picked to finish ninth in the 10-team WAC. UTEP should win the conference tournament but the three other bubble teams and Boise State could give the Miners a run for the NCAA berth.