Over/Under Handicapping - Betting NHL Totals

By Barry Patrick [www.winnersedgeonline.com]

This is a dated article from a 1996 article of Winner's Edge. However, the the principles of wagering on the over/under are still relevant and helpful. This is part one of the two part article.

To say the option of betting on the over/under has swept the wagering population would be overstating the situation somewhat. But, the over/under has become an increasingly popular wager amongst Canadian sports bettors, including of course those who play on the NHL. While the numbers show that the over/under is still clearly a second choice for the majority of sports bettors, whether you wager through the lotteries or elsewhere, it does have a growing group of followers. The opportunity to play on the total goals scored in a hockey game adds an extra chance for profits to each game. This is something that all bettors should take notice of, and work hard to master. Many sharp players, and handicapping services are doing well on the over/under plays, so if you're not in on it, here's your chance to start.

This week's article is the first installment of a two-parter on handicapping the over/under in the NHL. Next week I'll finish off by putting together the entire totals handicapping package. All the factors one should be aware of when wagering on the over/under will be covered. What I will focus on here is the importance of looking at two team's head-to-head histories when handicapping matchups for potential over/under wagers.

These past meetings are one of the cornerstones to the entire analysis, being a valuable base from which to build your final opinion. In fact, when I look over past results, they have the potential to be a very significant part of the basis for a play. In some cases, these numbers are the main basis for either a play, or the reason for laying off a wager. Now remember, as always, we never use only one criteria, or one set of numbers to make a play, but rather use these past performances as an extremely important part of a well-rounded strategy.

First of all, looking back at games which are directly related to the one you are analyzing is standard handicapping. When searching for an over/under winner, it is no different. By analyzing the head-to-head histories of the two opponents, we are able to determine if there is a pattern to the play of the two clubs when they face each other. Being able to establish if there is a fairly consistent flow to their matchups can be invaluable. Do they clog up the play, or is it a freewheeling type of a game? You will find that certain teams have a propensity to play each other in a similar fashion over a period of time, particularly if there are no major changes in personnel, or in coaching philosophies.

The Detroit Red Wings are a team that seem to, by reviewing their past head-to-head history, constantly play the same teams, the same way. Their record of six overs/18 unders and one push vs. the Calgary Flames in their last 25 meetings indicates that these two teams prepare for each other the same each time. This season so far, true to form, they have played two unders and a push. On the other side of the over/under equation, the Wings play a completely different style vs. the San Jose Sharks. They have recorded eight overs/one under/one push in their last 10 games vs. each other, including this season's two overs and a push. It's almost as if the talented Detroit team believes they can blow this team out in every meeting, thus the offensive attack is turned up, with the players all looking to rack up some big offensive numbers. When the Wings face the Sharks, even stay at home type defensemen like Bob Rouse are breaking up ice, dropping into the slot, and generally playing a more offensive-minded game.

To take it another step, when one is researching the head-to-head histories of the teams, it is vitally important to divide the totals into home and away categories. A handicapper should be aware of the fact that many teams play different styles of hockey depending on if they are in front of their home town fans, or on the road. Thus, the head-to-head numbers are that much more valuable when they are looked at with the knowledge of what happened where.

A good example comes from the Dallas Stars and the Los Angeles Kings. Their overall over/under record in their last 18 meetings is an unexciting eight overs/nine unders and one push. A first glance reveals nothing in terms of a worthwhile trend. However, when we break those totals down into home and away categories we come up with a pair of stats that are potentially useful. The Stars have a home record vs. the Kings of seven overs/two unders/ and one push. When the Stars visit LA, they are the opposite, posting a one over/seven under/ and zero pushes record. They obviously have different game plans dependent on where they face each other. This type of pronounced juxtaposition is not as apparent in all the franchises, but it is clear that whether a team is home or away needs to be incorporated into any totals handicapping strategy. Even when facing the same opponent. Listed in the chart are matchups still to be played this season between teams that have racked up lopsided over/under results. Go through the list and check to see if there is reason to believe the trends should, or shouldn't change. When you add the conclusion to this article (coming next week) to your strategy, you'll be armed to identify solid total wagers for the remainder of this year, and for NHL seasons still to come.