Over/Under Handicapping - Betting NHL Totals Part 2

By Barry Patrick [www.winnersedgeonline.com]

This is part 2 of an article that appeared in a weekly edition of Winner's Edge. The principles of wagering on the NHL totals (over/under) are still relevant and helpful.

In Part 1, I wrote about the usefulness of head-to-head histories in making over/under wagers on NHL games. This week I'm going to continue on the over/under topic, looking at some of the other factors that need to be considerd when searching out winners. There is so much information available to the totals bettor, that he or she should be able to identify at least a few solid plays each week if they take the time and use the right information. Here then, are some other factors besides head-to-head histories to help you uncover winning total wagers.

Goalies
They are an important factor any over/under bettor should take into account. A solid goaltending effort, or a poor one, can make the difference between a winning or losing ticket. Virtually everyone knows that Dominik Hasek is going to provide his team with a strong effort. Everyone including the oddsmakers, which means you won't get any breaks on the number. However, Hasek is one of those goalies that, alone, can make an under bet worthwhile. You should have, at the very least, some basic knowledge of how most starting netminders are currently playing. Is the Sharks' Mike Vernon struggling, or has been solid in his last five or more starts? Try to find matchups between two hot goalies, or between a pair of tenders who have been experiencing difficulties. Look at shots on goal for an indicator of current performance level. If a goalie isn't facing many shots (under 25), but consistently allows two or three goals, this is a goalie worth keeping an eye on for a potential over play when the situation is right. The opposite is also true for a goalie who is getting shelled, but still only allowing two or three goals. Expect him to continue to stand on his head, but in the right situation, his teammates should give him more support. It is important to know what is happening in the crease when you playing the over/under game.

Another important factor I look at is a team's current form. To do this, I evaluate the results from a club's last five games. Some handicappers insist on using a 10-game cross-section, which is fine, but over the years I've found five games to be not only sufficient enough, but a more accurate indicator. A 10-game record of seven overs, two unders and one push suggests a fairly strong "over" trend. However, it's not uncommon for a trend such as this to be turning around when looked at from a 5-game perspective, revealing a two overs, two unders, one push record in their most recent games. I take the last 5 games primarily to see if there is anything that sticks out in a team's recent play. A significant trend one way or the other means further digging is in order to find out why those games have gone the way they have. We look at injuries, special teams, goaltending, line juggling, style of opponents, over/under lines posted, etc.

Always be sure to take a team's current form into account when trying to identify over/under plays. Almost all of the information you need can be found right here in the Winner's Edge.

The next handicapping tool we use in the strategy is the home and away goals for and against average. This statistic can be very helpful as a reference point for over/under handicapping. A sort of guideline to begin your handicapping from.

By using statistics, we are able to come out with a rudimentary number that starts us off. For example, this Saturday, March 7th, the Red Wings travel to the West Coast to play the LA Kings. Using the stats as of February 24th, we see the Red Wings have averaged 3.1 goals for on the road, while allowing 2.4 goals against. Added together, those two tally up to an average of 5.5 goals overall (3.1 + 2.4). The Kings home totals are 3.5 goals for and 2.6 against. That totals up to 6.1. We then add the final numbers from both teams together (5.5 + 6.1) to get 11.6. Then we divide this by two (11.6 divided by 2 = 5.8). So, based on the scoring averages of both teams, this game should produce almost six goals (5.8). That is a reference point derived without any other information. Now is the time to factor in everything else (current form, starting goalies, home/away, head-to-head history, etc.) This number, 5.8, is only the starting point from which we'll begin our handicapping.

One of the over/under factors I began taking into account about four seasons ago is how a team plays at home as opposed to on the road. My experience has been that looking at home and road peformance can either be one of the most important, or one of the least important. What we look at here is a club's numbers over/under totals when playing at home, and then when playing on the road. The reason I believe it's important to check this is due to the fact that, unquestionably, there are some teams that play a different style of hockey depending on if they're home or away. Every year there are teams that fall into this category. This season, some examples are: the Pittsburgh Penguins (eight overs, 18 unders and four pushes on the road, 14 overs, 10 unders and two pushes at home), the LA Kings (nine overs, 14 unders and four pushes on the road, 14 overs, 11 unders and one push at home). Some teams play a very conservative road game, tight-checking, trapping, etc. Just trying to get at least one point and get out. But, these same teams can play a more wide-open, entertaining style in their own rink, attempting to give the fans their money's worth. Check out the stats to determine for yourself what teams are showing a pattern of adjusting their philosophy and style dependent on where the game is taking place.

Conference vs. Non-Conference
This is another area one must be aware of when looking for totals winners. Some teams definitely play a different style if they are playing vs. a conference foe, opposed to an opponent from the other conference. Conference battles often take on extra importance, therefore can result in a closely-played game in which neither team wants to make any mistakes. Thus, they can be much more defensive-minded contests. This season, the Montreal Canadiens have displayed a pattern of opening up their game against the Western Conference, while keeping things a little more under wraps when battling a counterpart from within their conference. This is not unusual, and should be something that is taken into account. When handicapping a matchup, factor in the "conference/non-conference" role.

Last week I discussed the value of using head-to-head histories for identifying potential over/under plays. It is important to note that those past results have their limitations and one of the reason's for that is because of a lack of job security amongst NHL head coaches. With the major overhauls constantly taking place, us over/under players need to take this into consideration. New coaches bring new philosophies. A couple of examples from this season can be found in Pittsburgh and Boston. The Penguins' coach, Kevin Constantine, has been successful in his efforts to institute a defensive component to the Pittsburgh gameplan that didn't exist in the past few years. The result has been a team that more often than not plays in games that go under the total, not over as had been the case last season. The same scenario is happening in Boston, where Pat Burns realized he needed a tight-checking game if he was to win with the limited talent available to him. The team has picked up Burns' defensive message, resulting in the team playing in far fewer overs than they did last season. These coaching changes are important to account for when looking at those head-to-head records, as well as accounting for in everyday handicapping.

If you commit to using at least some of the information from this article as well as part one last week, you will find you're over/under winning percentage climbing. Be aware that there are other factors that haven't been covered, but here you have a good base that will help you to prosper when added to experience making this bet. Be assured; fine tuning your winning handicapping system will be a constant activity. It takes some work, but it can be well worth it.