Soccer Profits: Road Dogs and Big Profits

By Marc Carinci

We’ve been cashing in with road dogs at juicy prices in recent weeks. Winners included Leeds over Blackburn (+275), Southampton over Man City (+330), and Blackburn over Everton (+230). Spotting value in a road team is an essential skill in soccer handicapping. This piece will give you a few lessons on how to do it.

Home field advantage is the primary factor in handicapping soccer and it weighs heavily in the oddsmaker’s take on a game. For the most part, lines favouring the home team are an accurate reflection of that team’s chances. The top teams seem virtually unstoppable on their home turf, but they’re far from invincible (contrary to what some announcers would have you believe). Home losses are not uncommon, and when they happen the road dog is typically available at a huge price (4:1, 6:1, even 8:1 and higher). Sometimes the line is so greatly skewed that road teams at big prices become hard to resist. Don’t believe me? Take a look at some of this season’s results:

» 30 August 2003:
Newcastle loses at home to Birmingham 1-0

» 25 October 2003:
Manchester United loses at home to Fulham 3-1

» 9 November 2003:
Valencia loses at home to Racing Santander 2-1

» 13 December 2003:
Chelsea loses at home to Bolton 2-1

» 21 December 2003:
Milan loses to at home to Udinese 2-1

» 28 December 2003:
Newcastle loses at home to Blackburn 1-0

» 25 January 2004:
Valencia loses at home to Osasuna 1-0

» 11 February 2004:
Manchester United loses at home to Middlesbrough 3-2

» 28 March 2004:
Roma loses at home to Bologna 2-1

» 11 April 2004:
Real Madrid loses at home to Osasuna 3-0

» 25 April 2004:
Juventus loses at home to Lecce 4-3

Sure, there are often situations where a home win is a near certainty because lousy teams are dreadful on the road. You could have backed Lazio over Ancona at -900 a couple of weeks ago. This weekend Parma to beat Ancona is available at -1000, if you’re so inclined. Top-table teams do not lose home games to bottom-dwellers. (They might draw once in a while, but they never lose) If you’re looking for a road dog with a decent chance to earn an 'upset', focus on the boring yet solid teams in the middle of the table - the Birminghams, Osasunas and Udineses of the league. These workhorses lack the flair and skill of the high-flyers, but to compensate they focus on what they’re good at: defence and counterattack. They may also lack the consistency of some of the premier teams (which explains their position in mid-table). But when they’re up for it, these clubs are fully capable of playing with the big boys and winning.

But even the best of teams can flop when playing on the road. Fourth-placed Newcastle is a horrendous 2-10-4 away from home. You can’t expect mid-table teams with similar road records to steal wins against the league’s best. But there are a remarkable number of teams, with respectable road records, who don’t get the respect they deserve by the oddsmakers. Others have that rare condition of playing better on the road. Relegation-bound Celta, for example, has a better road record than fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao.

So keep an eye out for value in the road dog. I’ve got two more big ones lined up this weekend so don’t miss out.

Last week: Blackburn grabbed a high-priced away win at Everton, and Roma destroyed Empoli. We won 230 units in our fourth straight winning week.

This week’s picks:

Chelsea vs. Southampton: 2004-05-01 10:00 ET
All Chelsea’s players are thinking about is next week’s Champions League match against Monaco. This game means nothing to them, and they don’t seem to care about second-place in the Premiership. Southampton is safe from relegation, but they are in excellent form in recent weeks, particularly in the goal-scoring department. At this price if would be foolish not to fancy their chances. Play on Southampton (+650) AND play on the Draw (+300)

Liverpool vs. Middlesbrough: 2004-05-02 11:05 ET
Liverpool is a ridiculous -190 only because they defeated Man United at Old Trafford last week. They’ve been highly inconsistent this season, with big wins followed by huge flops - just the situation they find themselves in against Middlesbrough. The under has gone 8-1 in the last nine games in this series, and this one will be another low scoring affair. Boro could easily steal a 1-0 victory. They play well on the road, and can take advantage of Liverpool’s nervous performance in front of their home fans. Play on Middlesbrough (+600) AND play on the Draw (+300)

Murcia vs. Valladolid: 2004-05-02 11:30 ET
As the worst team in La Liga, Murcia will definitely be relegated. But in these last few weeks of the season, they won’t find a softer opponent than Valladolid. Tied for third-worst, this team is an awful 3-5-9 on the road and they own the second-worst road defence in the league. Better still is the fact that Valladolid has no coach, after sacking the manager earlier this week. Coach-less teams don’t win games, especially not road games. These generous odds are a gift. Play on Murcia +300