MLB National League Predictions

By Tony George - Covers Experts

After taking a look at the American League earlier in the Week, I switch gears to the NL, and what a year and race this one should be. As a long-suffering Cubby fan, could this be the year? I say yes to that question, and they were a couple of plays away in 2003 from getting to the big show, and they have strengthened their line-up once again, and have a great bullpen. Health to a solid pitching staff will be key. The Marlins lost too much in the off-season but has anyone taken note of Houston's additions to the bullpen and an already potent offense?

2004 National League

NL EAST

Atlanta -- Last season I thought the Braves domination in the NL East would end and they surprised and pulled off another great year. Atlanta relied on scoring a ton of runs thanks to Chipper and Andruw Jones, along with Sheffield and Javy Lopez. The latter two are gone this season and for the first time in a decade there isn't a pitcher with the last name of Maddux or Glavine on the roster. John Smoltz is the only remainder from the Braves glory days of pitching. The Braves starting pitching will consist of Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Horaico Ramirez, John Thompson, and whomever Bobby Cox decides to toss in as the fifth starter. Other than Ortiz and Ramirez I am not impressed at all with Atlanta's starters. Mike Hampton is prone to disaster on any given outing, and John Thompson has always had an era hovering close to five it seems. Smoltz who had elbow surgery in the off-season and seems to be fine anchors the Braves bullpen. The set up men consist of Alfonseca, Gryboski, etc. They are all utility men, nothing special that stands out. Atlanta added JD Drew in the off-season to hopefully compensate for the loss of Sheffield and Lopez. JD is having super spring training. He is good in the outfield too. The biggest concern with Drew is his health. The guy has sustained a lot of injuries. If he can go the majority of the season that will be huge, because other than the Jones boys and Giles, I don't see much pop in this team.

Florida -- The World Series champions return minus Pudge Rodriguez, Derek Lee, and Juan Encarnarcion. Those three players accounted for 271 RBI's last season! That is a lot of offense to lose. Lee had 31 homers and was second on the team to Mike Lowell. The Marlins still have Juan Pierre who dislocated his pinkie finger over the weekend but hopefully will be fine and ready to go by Opening Day. Pierre sets the table at the top of the line up along with Castillo. These two steal the vast majority of Florida's bases and both hit above .300 last seasons. They are vital. The Marlins still have Lowell, and Cabrera, and although Pudge Rodriguez is a good catcher who will be missed, Castro hit .283 last season. The Marlins pitching remains virtually intact, minus starter Mark Redman and closers Urbina and Looper. I expect Josh Beckett to continue to shine, and for Penny, Pavanno, and Dontrelle Willis to improve more. Florida is expected to get AJ Burnett back sometime in May. He missed all of last season. He is a very good young pitcher and if he has his old stuff he will round out this rotation nicely. I am curious to see if Willis can add to his success from last season. He struggled in the second half. No doubt he has fantastic stuff, I would just like to see him work on his command more this season. Benitiz who will close for them will anchor Florida’s bullpen. I don't understand why they didn't resign Urbina. Benitiz is erratic. Florida's pen is young and shaky. It will be a concern along with the loss of Pudge, Lee, and Encarnarcion.

Montreal -- The Expos lost OF Vladimir Guerrero and pitcher Javier Vasquez. Montreal's starting pitching is descent with Tony Armas Jr, Zach Day, Ohka, Vargas, and whomever Frank Robinson decides to use as his fifth starter. The Expos bullpen leaves something to be desired though. Although the loss of Guerrero will be felt, all is not lost. Montreal still has Vidro, Cabrera, Wilkerson, and they acquired Nick Johnson from the Yankees. This team is turning it around. With another quality pitcher and one or two more bats, they could make some noise. Time will tell with the Expos, but they will compete in every game.

Mets -- The Mets assembled an All Star lineup last season that fizzled due to lack of production, injury, etc. This season they have Mike Cameron to go along with Piazza, Cliff Floyd, and Jason Phillips. The Mets had a great SS in Reyes but moved him over to second to make way for Matusi from Japan. It remains to be seen if Matusi can live up to the hype. The Mets also added utility men Shane Spencer and Kareem Garcia. Neither is anything special though. New York has what looks like a good bench in speedy Timo Perez, Zeile, Cedeno and McEwing. The Mets starting pitching will consist of Glavine, Leiter, Trachsel, Seo, and someone as the fifth starter. Glavine struggled greatly in New York last season. He also struggled with the way the Umps were calling the strike zone. I expect a better season from him this year. The pressure of being the new pitcher in town is gone and hopefully he will adjust to the strike zone. Leiter is gritty and will go long into games. I am not thrilled with Seo and Trachsel. Both had era's under four, but Seo struggled the second time around facing teams. Hitters adjusted to him, but he didn't do the same. Trachsel had a good season with a 3.78 era but I question can he duplicate it this year. Looper whom they acquired from Florida will anchor the Mets bullpen. I wasn't thrilled with him as Florida's closer and thought it was wise when they switched to Urbina. The Mets still have an aging John Franco in the pen, along with Mike Stanton who was a disappointment last year. They also have Weathers who was efficient last season. The Mets starting pitching and bullpen are concerns.

Philadelphia -- The Phillies look good on paper. The key will be Pat Burrell who had a dreadful season last year. He must produce. He is certainly more than capable. Philly has Jimmy Rollin's setting the table. He is speedy and if he concentrates on just getting on base and not hitting home runs he will be an excellent lead off man. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts. He had 113 last season. I like the lineup that consists of Byrd, Polanco, Abreau, and Liberthal. All who hit .289 or better last season. Phillies starting pitching looks solid with the addition of Eric Milton to go along with Millwood, Wolf, Padilla, and Myers. The biggest move Philly made this off-season was dumping Jose Mesa and finally getting a legit closer in Billy Wagner from Houston. Wager had 105 K's in 86 innings last season and only allowed 18 runs! The rest of the bullpen looks solid with Tim Worrell from San Fran, Cormier, Junge, and Telemaco. If manager Larry Bowa can keep this team unified, I like Philly a lot.

Predictions for the division:

Philly
Florida
Montreal
Atlanta
Mets

NL Central

Chicago Cubs -- Last season I picked the Cubs as one of my surprise teams. I said they were missing one more bat in the line up. The Cubs found that bat in Derek Lee this off-season. Lee has hit 20 or more homers in three of his last four seasons. He had 31 last season with the Marlins. He is also a great first baseman. His offense will go along well with Sosa, Alou, and a healthy Cory Patterson. Patterson only played in 83 games last season because of a torn ACL. Before he was injured, he was batting .298. He is a welcome addition back to the lineup. I am impressed with the Cubs bats but it is their starting pitching and bullpen that has me most impressed. Wood, Prior, Clement, and Zambrano all stepped up huge in the post season and showed that although they are young, they could all flat out pitch. I would like to see Clement step up even more. The Cubs picked up Greg Maddux to round out the rotation this season. Maddux isn't going to dominate like he did in Atlanta for all those years, but I believe he still has something to offer. If he can give them six innings that would be perfect because the Cubs have what I feel may be the best bullpen in baseball other than Anaheim's. Chicago added LaTroy Hawkins. He is a great set up man and could close if needed. They have a great closer in Borowski. They also added Kent Merker who posted a 1.95 era last season. In addition they have Kyle Farnsworth, and once Mike Remingler returns healthy they'll have him too. The Cubs pitching is loaded. Add their great pitching to a lineup that should score more runs than last season, and I see this team going far into the post season.

Cincinnati -- Everybody raves about the Reds bullpen but it is just OK to me. Graves is a good closer and Wagner has a very solid 1.66 era but after that, I am not all impressed. I am not impressed with their starting pitching either. Williams, Lidle, Haynes, Harang, aren't anything to write home about, all are average at best. The one potential bright spot with their pitching is Brandon Claussen. He was in the Yankees farm system and is highly regarded. He pitched one ML game for the Yankees and was super. I hated seeing them trade him because he showed nothing but promise in their farm system. The Reds bats contain Austin Kerns, Griffey if he isn't traded, Casey, Barry Larkin, and Jimenez. They will score some runs, but it's all about the pitching or in the Reds case, their lack thereof.

Houston -- The Astros made a splash in the off-season by signing Andy Pettitte and by luring Roger Clemens out of retirement. How much gas Clemens still have in the tank, remains to be seen. On paper the Astros have a very good starting five consisting of the two already mentioned in addition to Roy Oswalt, Miller, and Redding. Houston's bullpen is solid. Gone is Billy Wagner as closer, those duties now fall on Octavio Dotel who I think will do fine. The Astros have a deep and reliable pen filled with Lidge, Miceli, Stone and Gallo all who had era's under four. To compliment their pitching Houston has a lineup consisting of five guys who hit 20 or more homers last season. Expect many runs produced by Berkman, Kent, Hidalgo and Ensberg, all who batted .288 or better last season. Don't forget the killer B's, Bagwell and Biggio. These guys have plenty of firepower and star power, how they gel will be important, and it should stop the world from spinning everytime they play the Cubs this season.

Milwaukee -- The Brewers didn't resign their best weapon on offense, Ritchie Sexon. They have a few guys who can hit in Podsednik, Spivey, Jenkins, Overbay, and Moeller. Still, there aren't many guys who are going to pound the ball consistently in this lineup. Milwaukee's bullpen is descent. They have a good closer in Kolb who converted 21 of 23 save opportunities last season. Crudale and Vizcaino are good, but first the starting pitchers have to get the game to the bullpen. Ben Sheets and McKinney are descent. Then you have guys like Franklin, Oberbmueller, and Doug Davis. All are average at best. Descent and average aren't going to win this division, not with the Cubs and Houston in it.

Pittsburgh -- The Pirates are the same as Milwaukee. They have a few guys who can hit in Kendall, Redman and Mondesi, and they have a few guys who can pitch in Kip Wells and Benson, but otherwise you are left with an average or below average team. One of their top pitchers will likely be dealt, as they won't want to pay to resign him. Oh did I mention that Jose Mesa is the new closer? Nuff said. Expect nothing from the Pirates, so ol, same ol in Steel town.

St.Louis -- Lets start with the positives for the Cardinals. They have a lineup consisting of Renteria, Pujols, Edmonds, and Scott Rolen. All can flat out hit and play outstanding defense. St.Louis has a good one-two punch in starting pitchers Matt Morris and Woody Williams who I feel is highly underrated. The negatives? The 3-5 starters. Suppan, Carpenter, Marquis, Simontacchi? Take your pick; all are average at best pitchers. Simontacchi who was roughed up last season and bumped to the pen has the most potential of the group. Carpenter missed all of last season and Marquis was a bust last year with Atlanta. I like the Cardinals closer, Jason Izzinghausen if he can stay healthy. The rest of the pen is just OK with Kilne, King, Eldred, and Tavarez. The Cardinals need another legit starting pitcher.

Predictions for the division:

Cubs
Houston
St.Louis
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh

NL West

Arizona -- The one-two punch of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling is done now that Schilling has departed. In his place will be Webb. Webb was called up last season and was dynamite posting a 2.84 era. Arizona recognized they had a good pitcher on their hands and locked him up to a lucrative contract this winter. Randy Johnson suffered from injury last season and had a very un-Randy-like season. He isn't getting any younger, but can still throw heat. The problem I see for Arizona is the rest of their pitchers. Dessens and Shane Reynolds had era's over five last season and Steve Sparks isn't any prize. He has a nice knuckleball when he's on, but when he is off he shaky. I like Arizona's pen for the most part. Matt Mantei is a solid closer and Villarreal and Valverde and good set up men. The rest of the pen looks spotty with Casey Fossum and Nance. The D'backs picked up Alomar for some pop in the lineup. Hopefully getting away from the Mets will do him some good. His stay in NY didn't go well, but he is a great fielder and I believe he will hit .300 again. Ritchie Sexton was a good addition. Add Finley, Gonzalez, Cintron, Hillenbrand and Bautista and this team should score runs. The question is, how many will their pitchers give up?

Colorado -- Looking at Colorado's team is like looking at Texas. They have pretty good hitting but the pitching is dreadful. Shawn Estes looked washed up last season, what will pitching in the Mile High air do for him? Yikes! Add in Kennedy who Tampa let go, Elarton and Denny Starks and you have guys with era's over five and a few over six! Nuff said.....

Los Angles -- The Dodgers had the lowest team on base average in the NL last season. What did they do to bolster their anemic offense during the winter? Basically nothing. They picked up Juan Encarnarcion but it will take more than that to help this team. LA didn't have a single player with 100 RBI's last season and only Beltre had 20 or more homers. The Dodgers strength was their pitching and now it looks shaky. Kevin Brown is gone. In is Weaver who was beyond horrible for the Yankees. Nomo is coming off shoulder surgery and has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree during spring training. Ishii is coming off tendentious and Odalis Perez fizzled down the stretch. LA's bullpen loss Paul Quantrill as the set up man for Eric Gagne. They still have Gagne who converted 55 of 55 save opportunities last season. They also have Mota, Martin, Shuey, and Colyer. Still with an offense that didn't improve itself and starting pitching that looks worse, I don't expect much for LA.

San Diego -- The Padres added David Wells and Sterling Hitchcock to hopefully improve their starting pitching. Wells, Lawrence, Peavy, Eaton and Hitchcock form a nice starting rotation. The bullpen will be the question mark. Trevor Hoffman needs to stay healthy. Beck is gone for who knows how long do to personal problems. That leaves Witasick, Walkers, Osuna, and Otsuka. All average at best. I like the Padres lineup of Burroughs, Loretta, Giles, Nevin, Payton, and Kelsko. San Diego will be an improved team with the addition of Wells and Hitchcock, and with the additions on offense. If their bullpen can hold it together, look out. I still think the bullpen will be a problem though unless they add someone legit to go along with Hoffman and Beck whenever he returns.

San Francisco -- Barry Bonds is still there, so they will score runs. They added a young catcher who can also hit in AJ Pierznyski. They still have Durham, Snow and Grissom. Edgardo Alfonso must produce this season. He didn't do much after being traded from the Mets. San Fran showed their age in the post season against a young Marlins team. They didn't add much youth, other than Pierznyski. Jason Schmidt who is coming off elbow surgery, Kirk Rueter, and Jerome Williams lead their starting pitching. If Williams can duplicate or better last season's 3.30 era that will give the team a good starting three. The fourth and fifth spots in the rotation look like Tomko and Hermanson. I am not high on either. I like the Giants pen with Rodriguez, Herges and Eyre. The big question will be the durability of their closer, Nen who is coming off his third shoulder surgery.

Predictions for the division:

San Francisco
San Diego
Arizona
LA
Colorado

I think the Phillies, Cubs, and San Fran will win their divisions. I think Houston will grab a wild card spot, and San Diego will be the surprise team. San Diego reminds me of Kansas City from last season. If the Marlins can add to their bullpen, keep an eye out for them. I think the Atlanta Braves reign in the NL is over, but never doubt Bobby Cox either. The NL Central will provide for some entertaining games, watching the Cubs and Astros do battle all season. In the end I like the Cubs (I am a long suffering Cubbie), their pitching is just too strong and I like them to represent the NL in the World Series.

World Series match up prediction -- Yankees/Cubs. Winner -- you decide...I say Cubbies but pre-season predictions usually go out the window by the All Star Break! For once I hope I have it right, at least the NL Champ!