MLB Run Lines - A Closer Look

By William Foote - Covers Experts

Often I am asked the question: “why do you not release more run lines in baseball?" Quite simply, it is that I rarely see any value in them. Run lines were basically created so that people wanting to bet good teams could do so without risking two or three times their win amount. Right off the bat, common sense should tell you something is wrong with that picture.

In chatting with book makers and in conducting my own informal polls, it seems that by far the majority of run line action comes in on the favorite. When the Yanks are matched up with the Devil Rays and there is a run line posted, who do you think the public is betting on? Of course they are playing the Yankees.

To understand what I am talking about, you first need to understand the objective of an odds maker. A book manager’s job is primarily to even their action in an attempt to hedge risk. If done properly, the line set on any given game will encourage an even amount of money on both sides. This allows a book to sit back without a worry in the world and collect the vig.

So if the public is primarily playing the favorites on a run line bet and the books are trying to even out their action, which side of the bet do you think they are shading? Naturally they are heavily shading the favorite. In fact, I would venture to guess it is almost impossible to even their action on run lines and as such, books need to shade the favorite so much that it becomes almost impossible to win money over the long haul on such propositions.

You may then ask; if the odds makers are shading the favorites, wouldn’t value then reside with the dogs? My answer to that question is yes and no. Inherently, there is probably more value with dogs on the run line than favorites. That being said, dog or favorite, you pay a price in general to play run lines. In other words, books most always up their juice when run lines are involved.

Let’s say your book routinely deals a 15 cent spread on straight money lines. My guess is that their standard run line juice will be in the vicinity of 25 cents, 30 cents or more. Basically, you are paying a much higher price to be involved with a money line on either side. All of the aforementioned is precisely why I have released only three runs line bets all season long.

So while I generally do not like them, here are some rules if you still insist on betting them.

When betting the favorite on a run line, it is a wise idea to spot games that are bound to be high scoring. Obviously, high scoring games have a much greater chance of being decided by less than one run than do low scoring games. Two of the run line bets I released this year were in Texas and the other run line bet I released was in Colorado. Both of these ballparks are very hitter friendly and both see an inordinate amount of high scoring games.

In turn, it is advisable to look at the dog on the run line in games that will likely be low scoring. For example, a pitching duel that will likely turn out to be a 3-2 final or a 2-1 final is a good place to take the run and half. Playing the Dodgers as a dog on the run line is a great decision, as they usually play in very low scoring games. Playing against the Dodgers when they are a favorite is also advisable.

It is also very important to consider whether a team is playing at home or on the road in run line bets. The simple reason is the away team is assured to have their full 9 times at bat, while the home team is not. For example, if the home team is favored by 1.5 and they are leading by only 1 heading into the bottom of the 9th, they will not bat again. In essence, your odds are dramatically reduced if you need to win by 1.5 runs, yet have only 8 turns at bat compared to 9 turns at bat for the opponent. Obviously, it is much better to play the home team at +1.5 for this very same reason.

Anyhow, those are my thoughts on run line bets. Hope they help!